| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 7-63 | 1439.3 | -93.2 | 1346.1 | 3.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Memphis | 16-38 | 1346.1 | -33.8 | 1312.3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Murray State | 37-21 | 1312.3 | +21.0 | 1333.3 | 72.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Vanderbilt | 21-70 | 1333.3 | -34.1 | 1299.2 | 2.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | James Madison | 7-14 | 1297.5 | +35.8 | 1333.3 | 7.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | App State | 20-41 | 1333.3 | -54.6 | 1278.7 | 42.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 24-41 | 1278.7 | -10.0 | 1268.7 | 30.3% |
| 10 | Oct 23 2025 | L | South Alabama | 31-38 | 1268.7 | +5.4 | 1274.1 | 25.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 27-40 | 1282.8 | -2.7 | 1280.1 | 28.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Marshall | 18-30 | 1280.1 | +3.6 | 1283.7 | 16.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Troy | 19-31 | 1283.7 | -3.3 | 1280.4 | 24.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-27 | 1280.4 | +15.4 | 1295.8 | 7.7% |