| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | North Carolina A&T | 59-10 | 1559.2 | -78.3 | 1480.9 | 97.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Kennesaw State | 31-17 | 1480.9 | -28.3 | 1452.7 | 61.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | UCF | 30-44 | 1452.7 | +33.0 | 1485.7 | 16.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Northern Illinois | 35-14 | 1485.7 | +21.3 | 1507.0 | 72.2% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Old Dominion | 42-10 | 1507.0 | +40.3 | 1547.2 | 57.3% |